International tourism enjoyed signs of a rebound in June and July 2021 as some destinations eased travel restrictions and the global vaccination rollout advanced in many parts of the world

According to the most recent UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, an estimated 54 million tourists crossed international borders in July 2021, a 67 per cent decrease from the same month in 2019, but the highest results since April 2020. This compares to an estimated 34 million international arrivals in July 2020, which is significantly lower than the 164 million figure recorded in 2019.

Most destinations reporting data for June and July 2021 saw a moderate increase in international arrivals over the same period in 2020. Nonetheless, 2021 will be a difficult year for global tourism, with international arrivals down 80 per cent in January-July compared to 2019. Asia and the Pacific continued to have the worst results from January to July, with a 95 per cent drop in international arrivals compared to the previous year. The Middle East (-82 per cent) experienced the second-largest drop, trailed only by Europe and Africa (both -77 per cent). The Americas (-68 per cent) experienced a smaller decrease, with the Caribbean outperforming all other world subregions. Meanwhile, small islands in the Caribbean, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific, as well as a few small European destinations, performed best in June and July, with arrivals approaching, if not exceeding, pre-pandemic levels.

“There is clearly a strong demand for international tourism, and many destinations have started welcoming visitors back safely and responsibly. However, the true restart of tourism and the benefits it brings, remains on hold as inconsistent rules and regulations and uneven vaccination rates continue to affect confidence in travel,” said Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO Secretary-General.

Although destinations continued to report low international tourism revenues in the first seven months of 2021, several did see a modest increase in June and July, and some even surpassed their earnings in 2019. Among the larger destinations, Mexico earned roughly the same amount in tourism receipts in June 2021 as it did in 2019, with a 2  per cent increase in July over 2019.

The same can be said for outbound travel. Among the larger markets, France (-35 per cent) and the United States (-49  per cent) saw significant improvement in July, though tourism spending remained well below 2019 levels.

According to the most recent UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, prospects for September-December 2021 remain mixed, with 53 per cent of respondents believing the period will be worse than expected. Only 31 per cent of experts anticipate improved results by the end of the year. According to the survey, most tourism professionals continue to expect a rebound in 2022, fueled by unleashed pent-up demand for international travel, primarily in the second and third quarters.

Almost half of all experts (45 per cent) predict that international tourism will return to pre-crisis levels in 2024 or later, while 43 per cent predict a recovery in 2023. By region, Asia and the Pacific have the highest proportion of experts predicting a return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later (58 per cent). In Europe, half of those polled believe it will happen in 2023. The Middle East is the most upbeat, with a complete recovery expected by 2022.