The current estimated loss to the sector in India is currently pegged at a daunting Rs 5 lakh crores and job losses to the tune of 4 to 5 crores. These could worsen further depending on how much longer it would take to contain the pandemic.

The author Farhat Jamal is a Veteran Hotelier and Chairman, Travel, Tourism and Hospitality Committee,  IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mumbai.

COVID-19 pandemic has devastated humanity like never before. This is perhaps the darkest hour in the history of mankind and the trail of devastation that it has left behind is unimaginable. The severe blow to economies, the loss of human lives and the pictures of continued struggle and hopelessness from across the globe are frightening, to say the least. We are still not out of the woods as I write this piece except for mini triumphs over the virus in China and South Korea that provides us with the ray of hope. Even in Wuhan and Singapore, the alert is back with some sporadic cases surfacing and the lockdown has been imposed again. For now, the funerals have at least stopped in Wuhan, its deadly epicentre.

The previous big epidemic was the SARS in 2003 which impacted economies of China and Hongkong and South-East Asian nations in no small number. With a death toll of about 700 plus, Chinese GDP dropped by 1% and for the rest of the region, GDP slipped by 0.5% during that year. The world has gone through wars, terrorism threats, global financial crisis, disasters caused by climate change like untimely and serious floods and droughts in many regions around the globe, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis not to forget few other cogent health epidemics in the recent past like Ebola, Zika and H1N1. The list is long.

The extent of COVID-19 impact on tourism receipts, economies and job losses is a guessing game for now. The current estimated loss to the sector in India is currently pegged at a daunting Rs 5 lakh crores and job losses to the tune of 4 to 5 crores. These could worsen further depending on how much longer it would take to contain the pandemic. According to UNWTO the losses to global tourism may hit US$ 400 to 500 billion in international tourism receipts (exports) and a drop of 20 to 30% in International tourist arrivals in 2020. World Travel and Tourism Council has forecasted a global loss of 50 million jobs and the industry may take about 10 months for recovery. Of course, these figures may change depending on the key reasons mentioned earlier.

Tourism is resilient and will bounce back as it has done in the past. Having said that COVID-19 is leaving travellers with many disturbing and daunting challenges to deal with. They are deeply psychological and predominantly driven by fear of the uncertain. The biggest question is what will one’s travel itinerary look like in future and which regions in the world would be considered safe to travel? Perhaps they could be destinations closer to home or those that have great health facilities, travel insurance that will cover any eventuality and also travel companies and airlines capacity to bring one back home quickly if there was ever a repeat of a health threat. We don’t have all the answers yet but these are just early thoughts.

My sense is that in the near future, global business travel will bounce back soon though slowly. The travel would be hugely restricted to the absolutely necessary particularly to densely populated big metros and those that have been worst hit by the virus. The leisure traveller would certainly avoid the traditional busy beach, city and touristic destinations and seek the quite far-flung getaways even if they may come at a price. As for India, the drop in foreign travel will be significant through 2020. Most international conferences and events of all nature including mega sporting ones have been cancelled or moved to the following year and bookings of FTA’s as of now are pitiful or to almost negligible. My hunch is that domestic travel in India will be the key to growth in business and leisure travel and may pick up the pace by Q3. This would be primarily driven by decreased outbound travel demand and the fear of travel overseas to many favoured destinations till the end of this year and may stretch too early 2021.

In this darkest hour for Tourism, various industry associations in India have made representations to the government. They are seeking moratoriums for 12 months on all loans (principal and interest) including working capital, to consider a 12 month corporate tax holiday for travel, tourism and hospitality sector, a partial or complete waiver of GST for a year, the validity of annual renewal of licenses to be extended to 2021 without any additional fee or charges, to highlight a few.

One of the key fallouts of COVID -19 will be enhanced focus on hygiene and sanitation across the hospitality and travel industry. Hotels that will be able to market the facilities that they have put in place as part of new standards like a walk-in disinfectant at the entrance of the hotel lobby as an example. Plast Grup in Turkey has introduced and commissioned one already. Housekeeping staff training on new hygiene standards will become more rigorous and SOP’s will be rewritten. Hand sanitizers at the entrance of rooms or restaurants and bars would be commonplace. Waiters will have to meet gruelling table cleaning standards and may even have to sanitize chairs after each seating. The paper band tied around on WC’s in many hotels even today may find a place on the room entrance door saying the room has been fully sanitized for the guest.

Extensive use of technology wherein guests may not need to touch many surfaces would become commonplace. Infra thermometers to take temperatures may stay back for the foreseeable future and so would readily available masks, gloves, a set or two of PPE and availability of one quarantine room at all times to hold a guest who is suspected to be a carrier. While security scanners and checks will remain an absolute necessity, the onus to create a safe, hygienic and secure environment on hotels will be immense.

Another felt need that has emerged is the demand for hotels to provide isolation, quarantine and venues for healthcare workers to stay and for guests who will require the necessary two weeks quarantine. The hospitals are already stretched to provide these. The government may pre earmark hotels that would easily transform into healthcare centres at short notice. In Delhi and Mumbai, some hotels are already filling this need to help the Govt to tide over this crisis.

COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of the industry and things in this world that we have taken for granted. The new-age customer whether we call them Gen Z or millennials will seek out hospitality and travel companies that have bed rocked their business demonstrating sincere care for mother earth both in letter and spirit. They will look for businesses with strong values and profound purpose which go beyond simple profiteering and are committed taking care of communities and environment in earnest. Global tech company Amadeus declared 2020 as the year of ‘Conscious Travel’ stating that a large chunk of travellers factors in sustainability when deciding whom and how to travel. It is not simple to build a brand that stands for something but COVID-19 has given the industry an opportunity to step back, take a pause and redefine the very purpose of their existence.